In the ever-evolving landscape of global sports, there is a growing sentiment that soccer, or football as it is known in most countries, is poised to become the sole football code in the world. Rugby union in Australia, often considered a stronghold for traditional football codes, is seen by many as a canary in the coal mine, signaling a trend towards soccer’s eventual dominance. This prediction comes from John Wylie, a former chair of the Australian Sports Commission and the MCG Trust, whose expertise lies at the intersection of sport and business.

The Decline of Rugby Union and the Rise of Soccer

Australia, a country known for its passion for sports, is unique in that it boasts four football codes – Australian rules, rugby union, rugby league, and soccer. However, rugby union, currently sitting fourth in terms of popularity, has been facing challenges both on and off the field. The Wallabies’ performance has been lackluster, and there has been a decline in playing numbers at the grassroots level. Meanwhile, soccer’s global dominance is evident, with the sport reigning supreme in most countries around the world.

While rugby union remains the number one sport in New Zealand, Fiji, Samoa, and possibly Wales, it has struggled to compete with the likes of American football and Australian rules football. Even in Australia, rugby union faces stiff competition from Australian rules and rugby league, with both codes vying for elite talent. The sport’s television coverage is mainly limited to pay TV, and its future seems uncertain.

Wylie argues that rugby union’s struggles in Australia are indicative of a larger trend in world sport. Soccer, with its widespread popularity and global appeal, is positioned to take center stage. As TV dollars continue to flow into the top sports globally, soccer’s influence is only expected to grow stronger.

The Changing Landscape of Football Codes

In Australia, rugby league currently holds the second spot behind Australian rules football, but it faces its own set of challenges. While it enjoys more international recognition than Australian rules football, it remains a niche sport in countries like England and France. The sport is, however, gaining traction in the Pacific Islands, unlike Australian rules football, which is primarily confined to its country of origin.

On the other hand, Australian rules football, commonly known as AFL, has established itself as a truly national code. Its revenue from broadcasting, gate takings, and sponsorships surpasses that of other codes. Yet, as the world becomes more interconnected through broadcasting, the AFL faces a disadvantage. The international appeal of a FIFA World Cup, as seen with the Matildas, can energize an entire nation, but Australian rules football lacks a similar global reach.

The Cost and Safety Factors

One of the main challenges for soccer in Australia is its cost, particularly at the grassroots level. Compared to other codes, such as AFL and rugby league, soccer is considered more expensive to play. The base of the playing pyramid, which supports the apex, bears the financial burden. It can cost up to $800 to play soccer and up to $3000 if selected for a representative youth team. This cost disparity puts soccer at a disadvantage when it comes to attracting young talent.

However, recent developments, such as the record-breaking TV ratings for the Matildas during the FIFA Women’s World Cup, along with improved results for the Socceroos, indicate a potential shift in broadcasting deals. These deals could provide the peak body of soccer in Australia with increased funding, thus improving grassroots development. Additionally, soccer holds an advantage in terms of player safety. With growing concerns over head injuries in contact sports, soccer’s ban on headers, except in the penalty area, makes it a safer alternative.

The Impact of Concussion and Legal Ramifications

Concussion-related injuries have become a significant concern for contact sports like rugby union, rugby league, and Australian rules football. The long-term consequences of repeated head trauma, including chronic traumatic encephalopathy (CTE), have garnered increasing attention. As more players come forward with their stories, the administrators of these codes will likely face legal challenges and the need to allocate funds for legal proceedings.

The NFL in the United States serves as a cautionary tale, having agreed to a billion-dollar settlement with former players over concussion-related brain injuries. However, despite the mounting evidence and public awareness surrounding head injuries, the NFL’s new broadcasting deal demonstrates that TV money continues to flow to the top. This raises questions about whether soccer, with its focus on player safety, could eventually overtake even the NFL as the last bastion to fall.

The Future of Global Sport

Soccer’s rise to dominance is not just a matter of chance but a result of evolving global dynamics. Mergers and joint ventures between codes have been attempted in the past, but none have been successful. Rugby union and rugby league, as well as Australian rules football and rugby league, have all explored amalgamation, but these attempts have ultimately failed.

Soccer, on the other hand, has found success in embracing technological advancements, such as video review technology. The sport’s rules have remained relatively unchanged over the past century, a testament to its ability to adapt and maintain its simplicity. This flexibility and ease of understanding have contributed to soccer’s global appeal.

As the world becomes more interconnected and distances shrink, the global reach of soccer continues to expand. Gridiron fields can easily transition into soccer pitches, further solidifying soccer’s position as the dominant football code. While some may lament the absence of traditional upper-class diversions like golf, tennis, and rowing in the US, the rise of soccer offers a new and exciting future for the world of sport.

In conclusion, the rise of soccer as the dominant football code is a trend that cannot be ignored. Rugby union’s decline in Australia and the challenges faced by other football codes highlight soccer’s growing influence. As TV dollars flow into the top sports globally, soccer’s popularity and financial strength will only continue to grow. With its global appeal, focus on player safety, and adaptability, soccer is poised to become the last survivor in the world of football codes.